China Might Beat NASA to the Moon, Warns Former NASA Chief

The race back to the Moon is heating up—and this time, it’s not between the U.S. and Russia, but between NASA and China. Former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine has sounded the alarm, warning that China might plant its flag on the Moon before the United States does.

The reason? Complications with NASA’s chosen mission setup, especially the involvement of SpaceX’s Starship. Let’s break down what’s going on—and why it matters.

Strategy

NASA’s plan to return humans to the Moon is centered on its Artemis program. The current mission architecture combines a mix of old and new tech, and while progress is being made, the system may be too complex to beat China in this modern space race.

Here’s the core setup:

• SLS (Space Launch System): This is the most powerful rocket built in the U.S. so far. It’s designed to send the Orion capsule into lunar orbit.
• Orion Capsule: This is the spacecraft that will carry astronauts from Earth to orbit around the Moon, and eventually back home.

According to Bridenstine, both the SLS and Orion are mostly ready. They’ve faced delays and high costs, but they’re functioning and have flown in space. So where’s the problem?

Starship

The biggest challenge isn’t with SLS or Orion—it’s with the landing system. NASA picked SpaceX’s Starship, in a special version called HLS (Human Landing System), to carry astronauts from lunar orbit down to the Moon’s surface and back up.

Sounds futuristic, right? It is. But that’s also the issue.

Bridenstine points out several problems:

• Orbital refueling: Starship needs to be refueled in space before heading to the Moon. That means multiple extra launches just to get the fuel up there. This has never been done before.
• Human rating: Starship has not yet been certified for human missions. That process hasn’t even started.
• Uncertain lunar orbit stay: We still don’t know how long Starship can safely wait in lunar orbit while it waits for astronauts to arrive from Orion.
• Crew safety: If something goes wrong, astronauts might be stuck on the Moon for up to a week without a direct escape route. That’s a major safety red flag.

Decision

Back in 2021, NASA made the controversial call to award the lunar landing contract solely to SpaceX. Other major aerospace companies like Blue Origin and Dynetics also submitted proposals, but were left out.

Bridenstine argues that this decision—one of the most important in NASA’s history—was made when no official NASA Administrator was in charge. In his words, no experienced administrator would have chosen this complicated mission structure, especially one so dependent on an untested system.

In fact, Blue Origin even took NASA to court over the decision. The legal battle ended, but the debate hasn’t. Was it smart to put all the eggs in one (Starship-sized) basket?

China

While NASA is navigating all this complexity, China is quietly and efficiently making lunar progress. They’ve already pulled off successful missions—including the first landing on the far side of the Moon—and they’re not stopping there.

Bridenstine believes that if SpaceX’s Starship delays continue, China will leap ahead. They already have a clear roadmap for sending astronauts to the Moon in the next decade—and unlike NASA, their system isn’t based on untested technology.

In short, China might just beat the U.S. back to the Moon.

Stakes

Why does this matter so much? It’s not just about waving flags or bragging rights. NASA sees the Moon as a key stepping stone for future missions to Mars, and a place to develop the technologies needed for deep space exploration.

If China gets there first, it would shift the global power dynamics in space. It could also help China build stronger partnerships, influence international space laws, and set the tone for what the future of lunar exploration looks like.

The space race is back, and the stakes are higher than ever.

Outlook

NASA has the talent, experience, and innovation to succeed—but the clock is ticking. Unless the challenges with Starship are solved quickly, the U.S. may find itself watching as China claims the next big milestone in space exploration.

Whether it’s NASA or China, the world is watching closely. Whoever lands first will define the next era of humanity’s presence beyond Earth.

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